Three Black Swans #1

A Black Swan. I would like to see one…but not like this:

[t]he “black swan theory” refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences

I don’t think that regular readers will need more than a moment to add these Three Black Swans together and agree that no one is going to be able to stop the collapse of the Euro, or the collapse of anything else that governments say that they want to maintain.

While the probably illegal earnest statesmanlike Supercommittee members decide not to decide, likely inflicting great harm on the US economy, real estate transactions in China have plummeted to unsafe lows, and Egyptians are out on the Square again, asking again for the democratic government they were promised. They are being killed for it, again.

[t]he absence of an agreement also threatens to significantly slow growth in an already ailing economy by raising taxes on almost everyone while reducing government spending on almost everything.


CAIRO — The cabinet offered its resignation on Monday to Egypt’s transitional military rulers as security forces carried out an increasingly lethal crackdown on three days of violent street protests, reviving the uncertainty about Egypt’s future that marked the earliest days of the Arab Spring.


Property deal slump exceeds Chinese stress test

PROPERTY TRANSACTIONS in China’s largest cities have fallen to dangerously low levels.

According to documents obtained earlier this year by the Financial Times, the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) ordered domestic banks to weigh the impact of a 30 per cent decline in housing transactions in “stress tests” aimed at determining the health of the Chinese financial system. While Beijing has been trying to rein in sky-high property prices, a China property slump would have a big ripple effect on the global economy. Construction of property accounted for more than 13 per cent of China’s economy last year.

In April, the CBRC told banks to test their loan books against a 50 per cent fall in prices, and also a 30 per cent fall in transaction volumes. In October, however, property transactions fell 39 per cent year on year in China’s 15 biggest cities, according to government data. Nationwide, transactions dropped 11.6 per cent, up from a 7 per cent fall in September.

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